FatFIRE Math

Historical withdrawal-rate explorer

Which withdrawal rate held up?

Move the first-year withdrawal rate and watch the share of complete historical retirements that survived. Then compare it with the highest rate that never failed in this record.

Your plan

Today's dollars. Inputs stay in this browser.

Spending is this share of the starting portfolio, then held constant in real terms.
Allocation
Stocks with a fifth in 10-year Treasuries — the usual Fat FIRE accumulation mix.
Historical survival90%52 of 58 complete starting years.
First-year spending$120,0004.00% of the starting portfolio.
Rate that survived them all3.59%$107,580 in the first year.
Worst starting year1929Ran out in 1962.

A 4.00% withdrawal rate survived 52 of 58 complete 40-year periods. The strict historical rate was 3.59%.

Exhibit 1 — every historical retirement at your rateEnding portfolio by start year
Ending portfolio by historical starting year$0$5.0M$10M$15M193019401950196019701980
Rust bars ran out of money. Dark bars lasted through the full retirement. Extremely large endings are capped so the failures remain legible.
Exhibit 2 — survival falls as the rate risesSame horizon and allocation
Historical survival by withdrawal rate0%25%50%75%100%Your rate2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%
This is not a probability forecast. It is the share of complete historical periods in this US record that held.
Historical startLowest pointEnded withResult
Worst endingStarted in 1929$0Ran out in 1962Missed
Median endingStarted in 1935$2,654,804$7,898,118Held
Best endingStarted in 1982$3,000,000$48,592,047Held

Results use historical US returns. They are pre-tax, before fees and are not forecasts. Read what the 4% rule actually assumed, or see about and method.