FatFIRE Math

Historical stress test

Would your plan survive the bad decades?

Compare the same plan starting in 1929, 1937, 1966, 1973 and 2000. The selected retirement length determines which of those periods has enough data to include.

Your plan

Today's dollars. Inputs stay in this browser.

Allocation
Stocks with a fifth in 10-year Treasuries — the usual Fat FIRE accumulation mix.
Stress decades passed1 of 4Selected difficult starting years with enough data for the chosen horizon.
Hardest start1929Ran out in 1962.
Lowest point$0The hardest balance you would have had to sit through.
First-year withdrawal4.00%$120,000 from $3,000,000.

This plan passed 1 of the 4 deliberately difficult starting years. 1929 was hardest and ran out in 1962.

Exhibit 1 — what each bad decade leftSelected stress years
Ending portfolio in each selected bad-decade start$0$1.0M$2.0M$3.0M1929193719661973
These are not simply the 4 lowest-return calendar years. They are recognizable retirement starting points that exposed different risks: crash, inflation, valuation and sequence. Only starts with enough subsequent history for the chosen horizon are included.
Exhibit 2 — 4 difficult starts, one planReal dollars after spending
1929 compared with 1937 compared with 1966 compared with 1973$0$1.0M$2.0M$3.0MStarted $3.0MStart+10+20+30+40
The rust line is the worst ending. The green line is the strongest of this deliberately difficult set; the others stay quiet so the range remains readable.
Historical startLowest pointEnded withResult
Retired in 1929Depleted in 1962$0$0Failed
Retired in 1937Held for the full period$876,753$935,375Held
Retired in 1966Depleted in 1992$0$0Failed
Retired in 1973Depleted in 2012$0$0Failed

Results use historical US returns. They are pre-tax, before fees and are not forecasts. Read why the first five years decide everything, or see about and method.